Monday, May 6, 2013

Chris Colley's TV Blog*'s 2013 TV Pilot Season Slate Preliminary Analysis (Big 4 Networks Only)

UPDATE (5/8/13)

CBS has reportedly picked up Mom.  I'm putting it here now, but if that's a big fat lie, this update will go bye bye.

According to Nellie Andreeva at deadline.com, a bunch of NBC Pilots have been notified that they will not be going.  I'll list them below, and also change their status to "No Go" in the big list.

NBC Pilot No Gos (5/8/13):

Hatfields & McCoys
Holding Patterns
The Gates
Joe, Joe, and Jane
The Secret Lives of Husbands of Wives
Brenda Forever (not 100 percent dead, possibility it could be used for Spring)
Bloodline
The Sixth Gun

FOX Pilot News (5/8/13):

Dads (Ordered straight to 6 episode series)
Boomerang (No Go)
Delirium (No Go)
Gang Related (Ordered to series)
Almost Human (Ordered to series)
The List (No Go)
Rake (Ordered to series)
Sleepy Hollow (Ordered to series)
Enlisted (Ordered to Series)
Us and Them (Ordered to series)
The Gabriels (No Go)
I Surviving Jack (Ordered to series)
Two Wrongs (No Go)
Brooklyn Nine-Nine (Ordered to series)

UPDATE (5/9/13)

NBC Pilot News (5/9/13):

Believe (Ordered to series)
Crisis (Ordered to series)
About a Boy (Ordered to series)
Sean Saves the World (Ordered to series)
Family Guide (Ordered to series)

ABC Pilot News (5/9/13):

Gothica (No Go)
The Crazy Gene (No Go)
King John (No Go)
Agents of SHIELD (Ordered to series)

UPDATE (5/10/13)

NBC Pilot News (5/10/13):

Ironside (Ordered to series)
Undateable (Ordered to series)
Chicago PD (Ordered to series)
Mulaney (No Go)
The Blacklist (Ordered to series)
The Night Shift (Ordered to series)
Welcome to the Family (Ordered to series)
Untitled Greg Daniels/Robert Padnick Comedy (No Go) 

CBS Pilot News (5/10/13):

Mom (Officially ordered to series)
The Millers (Ordered to series)
Crazy Ones (Ordered to series)
We Are Men (Ordered to series)
Hostages (Ordered to series)
Intelligence (Ordered to series)

ABC Pilot News (5/10/13):

Super Fun Night (Ordered to series)
Middle Age Rage (No Go)
Pulling (No Go)
Killer Women (Ordered to series)
Resurrection (Ordered to series)
Lucky 7 (Ordered to series)
Betrayal (Ordered to series)
Back in the Game (Ordered to series)
Mind Games (Ordered to series)
The Goldbergs (Ordered to series)
Mixology (Ordered to series)
Big Thunder (No Go)
Reckless (No Go)
Divorce: A Love Story (No Go)
Venice (No Go)
Spy (No Go)
Bad Management (No Go...for now...)
Murder in Manhattan (No Go, ABC shopping to cable)

UPDATE 5/12/13

CBS Pilot News (5/12/13):

Reckless (Ordered to series)

===================================================

Welcome to the second annual Chris Colley's TV Blog*'s TV Pilot Season Slate Preliminary Analysis.  In it, I will let you know what I would pick up if I were a TV executive solely based on the premise.  Some of my choices might be wrong, and some might be better or more poorly executed than the premises.  This is also a place where you can come to see the list continuously updated as the networks make their choices.

Before I do this year's, I'm going to backtrack and talk about my analysis from last season, which can be seen here.  It will look somewhat different than this year's, so keep that in mind when checking it out.  The only shows that are interesting for the backtrack are the shows that got picked up and how they did.  As you may note from the other post I did, I picked what I would have picked up, based on the premises, and what I thought would make it, not necessarily what I thought would get picked up.  I did think almost everything in the "Looks Promising" and above had a much better chance than average of being picked up.  Due to that, some shows I didn't think should get picked up were, and some that I thought should get picked up weren't.  Here, we'll see how the ones that got picked up fared, and consider what category I put it in at the time.  My categories last year were "Looks Good", "Looks Promising", "Not Sure", "Hmm", "No Go", and "Awwww Hellllll Nawwww".  The shows I thought had a good shot of being picked up were in the "Looks Good" and "Looks Promising" categories.  For the "Not Sure" category, there just wasn't enough information to make an informed judgment.  For "Hmm", I wasn't grabbed by the premise, but execution could get it picked up.  For "No Go", I didn't think the series should be ordered, typically because I didn't think it would make it.  For "Awwww Hellllll Nawwww", I thought the premise looked ridiculous, and that it would be unlikely that the show would be successful (because of the polarizing nature of those shows, there was high likelihood of errors on my part, due to only seeing the premises and not the execution).  Now that you're caught up, I'll list the categories below, with the shows that were ordered to series.  I'll then let you know how they did by saying what their current prospects are for renewal (all will likely have their fates decided by end of day Friday, Pacific Time).

2012 Pilot Season Slate Preliminary Analysis (RECAP):

Looks Good:

Elementary (CBS)-Renewed
Go On (NBC)-Canceled
Revolution-(NBC)-Renewed

Looks Promising:

666 Park Avenue (ABC)-Canceled
Last Resort (ABC)-Canceled
Red Widow (ABC)-Canceled
Made in Jersey (CBS)-Canceled
1600 Penn (NBC)-Canceled
Guys with Kids (NBC)-Canceled
Do No Harm (NBC)-Canceled
The Goodwin Games (FOX)-Never Aired
The Following (FOX)-Renewed

Hmm:

Zero Hour (ABC)-Canceled
Vegas (CBS)-Canceled
The Mindy Project (FOX)-Renewed

No Go:

Malibu Country (ABC)-Canceled
Family Tools (ABC)-Canceled
Partners (CBS)-Canceled
Golden Boy (CBS)-Canceled
Save Me (NBC)-Airs Late May, 2013
Chicago Fire (NBC)-Renewed
Hannibal (NBC)-I predict renewal, others predict cancellation
Ben and Kate (FOX)-Canceled
The Mob Doctor (FOX)-Canceled

Awwww Hellllll Nawwww:

How to Live with Your Parents for the Rest of Your Life (ABC)-Canceled
Neighbors (ABC)-Renewed
Nashville (ABC)-Renewed
Friend Me (CBS)-Never Aired
Animal Practice (NBC)-Canceled
The New Normal (NBC)-Canceled
Next Caller (NBC)-Never Aired
Deception (NBC)-Canceled

Now, let's get on to 2013's preliminary analysis.  You can see The Hollywood Reporter original article here.  This whole list is just me playing TV executive, so take it with a grain of salt.  In some ways, it's like picking the NCAA tournament bracket.

For this year, I've decided to change the categories a bit.  I'll still keep "Looks Good", "Looks Promising", "Not Sure", and "Hmm".  The first two are ones I think have a much better than average shot of getting picked up, provided they're executed well.  The other two will not be much better than a 50/50 proposition, and execution will mean everything.  "No Go" will mean that I don't think it should be picked up.  "No Go For Me" means that it doesn't work for me, but it could for the network.  "No, Please, No" is stuff I don't think should be picked up under any circumstances.  "No, Please, No, F.U. Chris" will be shows that I think are ridiculous but that networks might pick up.

*DENOTES APPARENTLY FULLY SERIALIZED SHOWS 

Looks Good:

Agents of SHIELD (ABC)* Ordered To Series
Almost Human (FOX) Ordered To Series
Mulaney (NBC) No Go
Untitled Michael J. Fox Comedy (NBC)-Ordered Straight To Series
Untitled Owen Ellickson & Craig Robinson Comedy (NBC)

Looks Promising:

The Goldbergs (ABC) Ordered To Series
Spy (ABC) No Go
King John (ABC) No Go
Doubt (ABC)
Murder in Manhattan (ABC) No Go-shopping to cable
The Crazy Ones (CBS) Ordered To Series
We Are Men (CBS) Ordered To Series
Super Clyde (CBS)
The Millers (CBS) Ordered To Series
Anatomy of Violence (CBS)
Backstrom (CBS)
Beverly Hills Cop (CBS)
Intelligence (CBS) Ordered To Series
Dads (FOX) Ordered Straight To 6 Episode Series
Brooklyn Nine-Nine (FOX) Ordered To Series
Boomerang (FOX)* No Go
Rake (FOX) Ordered To Series
Untitled Greg Daniels/Robert Padnick Comedy (NBC) No Go
Believe (NBC)* Ordered To Series
Bloodline (NBC)* No Go
Hatfields & McCoys (NBC)* No Go
Ironside (NBC) Ordered To Series
The Sixth Gun (NBC) No Go

Not Sure:

Big Thunder (ABC)* No Go
The McCarthys (CBS)
NCIS: Red (CBS)
Enlisted (FOX) Ordered To Series
Holding Patterns (NBC) No Go
Family Guide (NBC) Ordered To Series
The Blacklist (NBC)* Ordered To Series

Hmm:

Back in the Game (ABC) Ordered To Series
Pulling (ABC) No Go
Mind Games (ABC) Ordered To Series
Reckless (ABC)* No Go
Once Upon a Time in Wonderland (ABC) Ordered To Series
Bad Teacher (CBS)
Mom (CBS) Ordered To Series
Untitled Tad Quill Project (CBS)
The Surgeon General (CBS)
The Gabriels (FOX) No Go
Gang Related (FOX)* Ordered To Series
The List (FOX)* No Go
About a Boy (NBC) Ordered To Series
Assistance (NBC)
Brenda Forever (NBC) No Go But Possibility For Spring
The Gates (NBC) No Go
Sean Saves the World (NBC) Ordered To Series
Welcome to the Family (NBC) Ordered To Series
Chicago PD (NBC) Ordered To Series

No Go: 

The Crazy Gene (ABC) No Go
Mixology (ABC) Ordered To Series
Super Fun Night (ABC) Ordered To Series
Trophy Wife (ABC) Ordered To Series
Killer Women (ABC) Ordered To Series
Lucky 7 (ABC)* Ordered To Series
Resurrection (ABC)* Ordered To Series
Friends with Better Lives (CBS)
Untitled Jim Gaffigan Comedy (CBS)
Untitled Rottenberg & Zuritsky Project (CBS)
Hostages (CBS)* Ordered To Series
The Ordained (CBS)*
Reckless (CBS) Ordered To Series
Second Sight (CBS)
Us and Them (FOX) Ordered To Series
Two Wrongs (FOX) No Go
Sleepy Hollow (FOX)* Ordered To Series
The Wild Blue (FOX)*
The Donor Party (NBC)
Girlfriend in a Coma (NBC)
Undateable (NBC) Ordered To Series
The Secret Lives of Husbands and Wives (NBC)* No Go
Wonderland (NBC)*

No Go For Me:

Bad Management (ABC) No Go-for now
Divorce: A Love Story (ABC) No Go
Middle Age Rage (ABC) No Go
Venice (ABC)* No Go
Jacked Up (CBS)
I Suck at Girls (FOX) Ordered To Series
Untitled Bilsing-Graham and Kreamer Project (FOX)
Delirium (FOX)* No Go
Joe, Joe, and Jane (NBC) No Go
The Night Shift (NBC) Ordered To Series
I Am Victor (NBC)
Crisis (NBC)* Ordered To Series

No, Please, No:

Gothica (ABC)* No Go
The Advocates (CBS)
 
No, Please, No, F.U. Chris:

Betrayal (ABC)* Ordered To Series

To wrap up, I'll finish with a little bit about fully serialized television shows.  As I've said over and over on this blog, I think it's very inappropriate for networks to continue to produce fully serialized television shows.  If you've read the blog, you'll know that I am a huge advocate of hybrid serialization on network TV.  If you'd like to read why, you can read my post about it here.  This season, there were eleven new shows on network TV that I consider to be fully serialized (Revolution, 666 Park Avenue, Last Resort, Red Widow, The Following, Zero Hour, Vegas, Hannibal, The Mob Doctor, Nashville, and Deception), even if a few of those had "stories" of the week pushing them closer to hybrid serialization, but not close enough.  Of those eleven shows, it looks like only Revolution, The Following, Nashville, and hopefully Hannibal will return.  Both The Following and Hannibal had 13 episode first seasons that ran straight through, so they don't fall in the same league as shows like Revolution and Nashville that had full seasons, and dealt with numerous hiatuses.

2012 Fully Serialized Shows By Network:

ABC-5
CBS-1
FOX-2
NBC-3

ABC only had one successful fully serialized new show this season, yet they're pushing forward with 8 more fully serialized Pilots for next season.

2013 Apparently Fully Serialized Pilots By Network:

ABC-8
CBS-2
FOX-6
NBC-7

There was a significant reduction in fully serialized Pilots for next season, with the exception of FOX, who increased their fully serialized Pilots to 6 from 5.  For the reductions, ABC went from 12 to 8, CBS went from 3 to 2, and NBC went from 10 to 7.  It's not much of a surprise that FOX still doesn't get how hard it is to make successful fully serialized TV shows, but when you consider how bad most of their drama schedule has been since the Terra Nova season, it really makes it make sense.  While I think NBC is making a mistake having as many fully serialized shows as it does this season, I think their Pilot slate looks quite interesting.  ABC will constantly try to make fully serialized TV work, so it's no surprise their slate is so high.   CBS is the procedural network, and they won't go too far out of the box toward serialized TV.  The furthest they really want to go is shows like Person of Interest, Elementary, and to a lesser degree Golden Boy, which are all very good hybrid serializations.

The 2013 Preliminary TV Pilot Season Slate Grades According To Chris Colley's TV Blog*:

ABC:  C
CBS:  B
FOX:  C
NBC:  A-

All we can do now is wait until Sunday to find out what gets picked up.  I'll update this post as I learn news, so keep checking in the right hand corner, if you're interested.  Thanks for reading.

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