Saturday, December 1, 2012

Chris Colley's TV Blog*'s Early Pointless Scripted TV Renewal/Cancellation Predictions For The Fall 2012 TV Season (Big 4 Networks Only)

Well, I've been wanting to unveil this for awhile, but I've been sitting on it, for various reasons.  While I was waiting to do so, some shows got canceled, that really weren't any major surprise.  I have been receiving ratings numbers, this season, of a few flavors, and am doing my own predictions based on a slightly different model than the current way it's typically done.  That's part of why I've been waiting so long to unveil this, as I wanted as much data as possible before making predictions.

It's been an odd TV season, where shows that shouldn't still be on the air, based on previous history, stayed on much longer than usual.  Whether that's due to a lack of programming to back those shows up, or whether different ratings factors are in play won't be able to be fully debated until the 2012-2013 TV season wraps up.  My feeling is that with DVR saturation growing, we could be looking at a new era for renewals/cancellations.  I have no true data to back this up, but people are watching a lot of TV in the first 2 days after the original Live+Same Day airing (what we all have made predictions based on in the past).  A show like Revolution (NBC) is routinely picking up 1/3 of its first 3 day 18-49 viewers in days 2 and 3.  These ratings are called L+3, and I'm using them as a factor in my "decisions" for this blog post.  The networks do not receive these often, but that's okay, because I think they're fairly easy to predict based on L+7 ratings.  I'm not saying there's huge stock that should be placed in these ratings, but I think they could play somewhere around a minimum of a 10 percent factor in a network's decision to renew a bubble show.  If you have a sizable bump in the L+3 ratings, yet are what I consider to be a bubble show in the L+SD ratings, I think there's a very good shot you will be renewed.  If there's not much bump, I'm putting you on the cancel side.

For this list, I'll first start out with what I consider the bubbles to be for each network, for all of the different brands of programming (rightly or wrongly), and then list what I think would happen, if the decision were made today.  I could have made these same predictions weeks ago, and been ahead of the curve, but I wanted to see more data.  I had originally predicted the cancellations of Partners (CBS), Last Resort (ABC), and 666 Park Avenue (ABC), so even though they were canceled before I made this list, I will give myself credit for predicting their demises accurately.  There could be a lot of places where I get this wrong, based on my not quite secret sauce criteria for renewal/cancellation, but it's the best I think I can do right now.  I think I will only have one wild card, where I won't make a prediction, and that will be described below (I don't really have enough data to back up my predictions for Happy Endings and Whitney, but I'm comfortable enough to make predictions on them).

Chris Colley's TV Blog* Estimated Bubbles (this is a ratings threshold NOT an average):

ABC:

Drama (Monday-Thursday)-2.0 in the 18-49 Demo
Drama (Sunday)-1.8 in the 18-49 Demo
Comedy (Monday-Thursday)-1.6 in the 18-49 Demo
Comedy (Friday)-1.4 in the 18-49 Demo

CBS:

Drama (Monday-Thursday)-2.2 in the 18-49 Demo
Comedy (Monday-Thursday)-2.2 in the 18-49 Demo
Drama (Friday-Sunday)-1.6 in the 18-49 Demo

FOX:

Drama (Monday-Thursday)-2.0 in the 18-49 Demo
Comedy (Monday-Thursday)-1.6 in the 18-49 Demo
Drama (Friday)-1.4 in the 18-49 Demo

NBC:

Drama (Monday-Thursday)-1.8 in the 18-49 Demo
Comedy (Monday-Thursday)-1.6 in the 18-49 Demo
Drama (Friday)-1.4 in the 18-49 Demo

Correct guesses in blue
Incorrect guesses in red
Guess that couldn't be made in green

What I Predict Would Happen If A Decision Were Made Today (animation not factored in):

Sunday (Renew It):

Once Upon a Time (ABC)
Revenge (ABC)
The Good Wife (CBS)
The Mentalist (CBS) 

Sunday (Cancel It):

666 Park Avenue (ABC)
Red Widow (ABC)

Monday (Renew It):

Castle (ABC)
How I Met Your Mother (CBS)
2 Broke Girls (CBS)
Mike & Molly (CBS)
Hawaii Five-O (CBS)
Bones (FOX)
Revolution (NBC)
The Following (FOX)

Monday (Cancel It):

Partners (CBS)
The Mob Doctor (FOX)
Deception (NBC)
Rules of Engagement (CBS)***FATE CHANGED MAY 6, 2013, DUE TO MULTIPLE ACTORS HAVING PILOTS, LEADING ME TO BELIEVE IT'S DONE***

Tuesday (Renew It):

NCIS (CBS)
NCIS: Los Angeles (CBS)
Raising Hope (FOX)
New Girl (FOX)
The Mindy Project (FOX) 
Parenthood (NBC)
Body of Proof (ABC)

Tuesday (Cancel It):

Happy Endings (ABC)
Don't Trust the B---- in Apt. 23 (ABC)
Private Practice (ABC, final season)
Vegas (CBS)
Ben and Kate (FOX)
Go On (NBC)***FATE CHANGED FEBRUARY 20, 2013***
The New Normal (NBC)***FATE CHANGED FEBRUARY 20, 2013***
Smash (NBC)
Golden Boy (CBS)

Wednesday (Renew It):

The Middle (ABC)
The Neighbors (ABC)
Modern Family (ABC)
Suburgatory (ABC)
Nashville (ABC)
Criminal Minds (CBS)
CSI: Crime Scene Investigation (CBS)
Law & Order: Special Victims Unit (NBC)
Chicago Fire (NBC)
How to Live with Your Parents for the Rest of Your Life (ABC)

Wednesday (Cancel It):

Animal Practice (NBC)
Whitney (NBC)
Guys with Kids (NBC)***FATE CHANGED FEBRUARY 21, 2013***
Family Tools (ABC)

Thursday (Renew It):

Grey's Anatomy (ABC)
Scandal (ABC)
The Big Bang Theory (CBS)
Two and a Half Men (CBS)
Person of Interest (CBS)
Elementary (CBS)
Glee (FOX)
Parks and Recreation (NBC)
Community (NBC)
Hannibal (NBC)

Thursday (Cancel It):

Last Resort (ABC)
30 Rock (NBC, final season announced last season)
The Office (NBC, final season announced prior to season start)
Do No Harm (NBC)
Zero Hour (ABC)
1600 Penn (NBC) 
Up All Night (NBC)

Friday (Renew It):

Last Man Standing (ABC)
Malibu Country (ABC)
Blue Bloods (CBS)
Grimm (NBC)

Friday (Cancel It):

CSI: NY (CBS)
Made in Jersey (CBS)
Fringe (FOX, final season announced last season)
Touch (FOX)

We'll find out in the coming months whether this was a good prediction chart, or just another batch of b.s. out in the internet wasteland.  I don't think I have many divergences from conventional wisdom, so far, but there are probably a few.  We'll do the real one of these next Spring, toward the middle of the TV season.  Commence cheering or weeping and gnashing of teeth now.  Thanks for reading.

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