Wednesday, March 7, 2012

Chris Colley's Pointless Predictions Of What's Going To Get Renewed And Canceled For The 2011-12 TV Season

Correct predictions will be highlighted in Blue
Incorrect predictions will be highlight in Red.

Lots of people like to speculate about what will happen with TV shows.  I'm one of those people.  I thought all of the normal predictors were out of their minds placing Person of Interest (CBS) on the bubble, and Unforgettable (CBS) as likely to be renewed.  I knew that Person of Interest would be back, long before anyone else was willing to say it, but I'm really doing nothing more than educated guessing based on my own ideas of what makes a show get renewed or canceled.  We're now just about far enough into the TV season that I think I can really start shoring up my predictions.  In the case of this post, I'm going to use the words "Renew It" or "Cancel It", and I might put parentheses for shows that I think will be renewed or canceled, despite what I *think* should happen.

I'll list my categories for what I think plays into a renewal of a show, even if they are woefully wrong.  We'll see if I'm right by the end of the season.  If there's something I'm not willing to predict, yet, I'll give a rough date for when I'm going to be ready to predict the show's fate.  This will only be for scripted TV, and will only count the four big networks (CBS, NBC, ABC, FOX).  I will continuously update this, as the season goes on, if we get other news.  Keep in mind that I have literally nailed every show that has already been canceled (outside of animation, which I don't care about).  I will still place those in, and mark them in blue, for being correct, and red for being wrong.  There's a lot of information out there that makes this kind of stuff easier to predict, but there are a few places where I may differ from what other people say.

Chris Colley's Criteria That Play Into Whether Shows Should Get Renewed Or Canceled:

1.  Ratings
2.  Quality
3.  Cost
4.  How close it is to syndication

Two of the three main (syndication will not come into play very often) categories have to be good for a show to get renewed, except in very rare instances.  Syndication can come into play for shows that are close to being canceled, but are also close to having enough episodes for syndication.  The shows that are nearest to syndication are the shows I would be most prone to making mistakes.  I don't like to deal in maybes, so I'm just going to come right out and say what I think each show's fate SHOULD be, not necessarily what it will be.  If I don't think it's wise to give an answer yet, I'll tell you when to expect one.


Already Renewed:

How I Met Your Mother
The Big Bang Theory

Already Canceled:

How To Be A Gentleman

Renew It (Fates decided March 7, 2012):

Blue Bloods
The Good Wife
Hawaii Five-O
The Mentalist
NCIS: Los Angeles
Criminal Minds
Person of Interest
Mike & Molly
2 Broke Girls
Two and a Half Men
Rules of Engagement (fate re-decided April 16, 2012, as I think it will come back, due to the likely expansion of the Thursday night comedy block, in a timeshare with Rob, to get it enough episodes for syndication)

Cancel It (Fates decided March 7, 2012):

A Gifted Man
CSI: Miami
NYC 22 (fate decided April 16, 2012)


Already Canceled:

The Playboy Club
Free Agents
Prime Suspect
The Firm
Chuck (Final Season)

Renew It (Fates decided March 7, 2012, except where noted): 

The Office
Parks and Recreation
30 Rock (fate adjusted May 7, 2012.  After seeing some of the NBC sitcom pickups, I'm pretty sure this is going to get another short season, much to my chagrin, as I really feel it should be canceled. reported that it was nearing a renewal for a 13-14 episode season, but I actually think it's going to be held in second position to one of these picked up sitcoms that will likely fail.  You'll know which one, once we see the set schedule.  If it's second position to Save Me, I think there's a very good chance it will get the 13-14, as I can't see that show making it past 8 episodes, based on the summary.  Its worst case scenario is that it will end up on one of these show's back nine that doesn't get picked up.  I can't buck the trend, like I did with Fringe, I have to at least acknowledge that this will happen, even if I think it's a mistake.  Since I can't take credit for this choice of renewal, it's more interesting to me to see how close this paragraph of explanation ends up being to reality.  Stay tuned.)

Cancel It (Fates decided March 7, 2012 except where noted):

Harry's Law
Are You There, Chelsea?
Up All Night (Update, May 7, 2012 is that the prospects look much worse for this show based on what sitcoms NBC is picking up, even though they still might do it, but shouldn't...shooooouldnnnnnnnn't.)
Law & Order: SVU (NBC will probably renew this, but shouldn't)
Awake (fate decided March 9, 2012)
Bent (fate decided March 22, 2012)
Best Friends Forever (fate decided April 12, 2012)


Already Canceled:

Charlie's Angels
Pan Am
Man Up
Work It!
Desperate Housewives (Final Season)

Renew It (Fates decided March 7, 2012, except where noted):

Modern Family
Once Upon a Time
Grey's Anatomy
Happy Endings
The Middle
Private Practice
Don't Trust the B---- in Apt. 23 (fate decided April 19, 2012)
Scandal (fate decided April 27, 2012)
Revenge (fate decided May 3, 2012)

Cancel It (Fates decided March 7, 2012 except where noted):

Body of Proof 
The River
Cougar Town (picked up by TBS for a fourth season)
Missing (fate decided March 23, 2012)
GCB (fate decided April 16, 2012)
Last Man Standing (fate changed May 2, 2012)


Already Renewed: 

The Simpsons
Family Guy
The Cleveland Show
American Dad

Already Canceled:

Terra Nova
House (Final Season)
Allen Gregory

Renew It (Fates decided March 7, 2012, except where noted):

Raising Hope
New Girl
Bones (renewed before it came back)
Touch (fate decided March 30, 2012)

Cancel It (Fates decided March 7, 2012, except where noted):

I Hate My Teenage Daughter
Breaking In 
Alcatraz (fate decided March 13, 2012, I actually think Fringe's 13 episode renewal boosts the slim chances for Alcatraz to also get a 13 episode renewal, that I'm assuming would be in a timeshare with Fringe on Friday nights)
The Finder (fate decided April 14, 2012)
Fringe (fate decided April 14, 2012, going against the grain of many people involved with the show, and multiple websites, predicting it will come back for a 13 episode 5th and final season)
Napoleon Dynamite (fate changed May 10, 2012, as I said before, I have no clue about animation, and I don't track it.  I have heard the ratings are not good, so let's put it here.  I won't be counting this against myself, regardless of whether I'm wrong.)

These are just one person's opinion, and that person's opinion means practically nothing.  There will be places I'm right, and places where I'm wrong.  If I were in charge somewhere, this is what I would do, but I'm not, so some of these shows can breathe easy.  Commence weeping and gnashing of teeth now.  Thanks for reading.

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