Thursday, March 29, 2012

TV Ratings Notes For Wednesday, March 28, 2012 (Are You There, Chelsea?, Bent, Whitney)

Are You There, Chelsea? (NBC, 8:30pm ET)

3.136 million Overall Viewers
1.2/4 in the 18-49 Demo

Last night was the season and series finale, you can take that to the bank.  Anemia is as anemia does.

Bent (NBC, 9pm/9:30pm ET)

2.634 million Overall Viewers (9pm episode)
0.9/3 in the 18-49 Demo

2.363 million Overall Viewers (9:30pm episode)
0.8/2 in the 18-49 Demo

True story, if you combine the two 18-49 demo ratings for Bent, from this week, Community has better ratings than both combined.  Okay, maybe they have the same 18-49 ratings, when you combine them, but when you compare the two shows, it ain't hard to decide the tie breaker, even if you've never seen Community, like me.

Whitney (NBC, 8pm ET)

4.162 million Overall Viewers
1.5/5 in the 18-49 Demo

This show settled right on the bubble for what could get renewed on NBC.  Good news for NBC that this show wasn't any good.  Chop, chop, chop its head off!  Thanks for reading.

FOX Announces Another Renewal

No, Alcatraz wasn't renewed, today, but Bones was.  It's a good thing, too, because it's probably going to get massacred in the ratings, when it comes back next week.  Thanks for reading.

Tuesday, March 27, 2012

Alcatraz Actor Jonny Coyne Knows What A DVR Rating Is

I just read a funny little article on TV by the Numbers.  You'll have to go there to find it.  As I've said for a little bit (I have tried to save it, but, well, no), Alcatraz (FOX) is going to get canceled.  Jonny Coyne, who plays the Warden, said that the show is "huge" in the DVR ratings, so it shouldn't be canceled.  You saw my appeals for viewers to watch it live, and also my noting of those good DVR numbers he is talking about.  My failed appeals to get people to watch the finale live show why the show is going to get canceled. 

Maybe he reads what I write.  If Jonny is reading this, I'd like to convey to him that I especially enjoyed his performance.  He was one of the high points of the show.  I know, just like me, he wants to know when he's coming back to the future.  Almost everyone was hoping he'd come back this season, but it didn't happen.  He's invested in the show, and in his character's outcome.  It's nice to see an actor be that interested, but I hate to disappoint him by telling him that the DVR ratings don't matter when it comes to a show's renewal prospects.  Jonny, if you're reading this, start talking, in public, about how Netflix should pick this show up.  That way, I'll know you're reading.  Thanks for reading.

TV Ratings Note For Monday, March 26, 2012 (Alcatraz)

Alcatraz (FOX, Mondays 9pm ET)

4.714 million Overall Viewers (8pm episode)
1.5/4 in the 18-49 Demo

4.743 million Overall Viewers (9pm episode)
1.5/4 in the 18-49 Demo

I'm sorry, Oprah, I did all I could, but these numbers were lower than last week.  Unless Bones has ratings extremely similar to these, when it comes back in Alcatraz's spot, you can pretty much forget about Alcatraz ever coming back.  I'll wait to see the first The Finder ratings, when it moves to Fridays, before officially hammering the last nails in the coffins of both Alcatraz and Fringe, but I'm literally down to my last 1 percent of hope left for this show.  Fringe fans need to use all of their supernatural powers to hope that The Finder is a disaster on Fridays.  If it is, then maybe FOX can find it in their hearts to set up a pity J.J. Abrams Friday night block.  Thanks for reading.

Monday, March 26, 2012

TV Ratings Notes For Sunday, March 25, 2012 (Harry's Law, GCB)

Harry's Law (NBC, 8pm ET)

8.026 million Overall Viewers
0.8/2 in the 18-49 Demo

Kathy Bates, you sure got a lot of fans above the age of 49.  This show certainly doesn't skew below 18.  This is now officially the most viewed scripted TV show on NBC, and the least viewed scripted TV show on NBC, where it matters.  The ratings for this show bring so many lols that I don't even know how to describe it.  Just remember, if this show somehow manages to get renewed, there will be a new term coined for it, that is no different than its name.  Right now, the show is banging on the lid of the coffin to get out from being buried alive.  Will there be enough breaths left for it to come back?  Uh...no.

GCB (ABC, 10pm ET)

6.488 million Overall Viewers
2.2/6 in the 18-49 Demo

Proving that this show is going to be a pain in the azz to predict the fate of, its ratings went up again, last night.  There was a NCAA basketball game overrun, which has likely skewed the ratings somewhat in this show's favor.  It's currently in my renew it pile, with caveats, but if it stays at a 2.2, next week, I'll drop all caveats and say that it will be renewed.  You happy?  Thanks for reading.

Saturday, March 24, 2012

An Open Letter To Alcatraz (FOX, Mondays At 9pm ET) Fans, Especially Nielsen Households

Dear Alcatraz Fan,

Oprah Winfrey called me up a little earlier, and said that since she can't actually appeal to Nielsen households to watch a show, that she needed my help.  She told me she is a huge fan of Alcatraz, and thinks it would be a crying shame for it to be canceled.  I told her that the prospects are dim, but that the viewers are there, just not on the same day as the initial airing.  I told her about the L+7 DVR ratings, and how the show pulls in a 3.1 in the 18-49 demo, in the 7 days following the airing of each episode. 

She then asked me why Alcatraz was going to have such a hard time getting renewed.  I told her it was because it only gets a 1.6 in the 18-49 demo in the live and same day ratings (very low ratings for a FOX series), and that she needs to hope Nielsen households watch the season (series?) finale live.  I told her that if the show could pull in something like a 3.0+ in the 18-49 demo, especially up against the brutal competition it's facing, that it would likely get to come back. 

It was in that moment that she broke down in tears of hope, and asked me to write an open letter imploring the Alcatraz viewing Nielsen households to watch the season finale live.  She said she couldn't ask for this herself, and asked if I would be willing to ask for her.  I told her that I am also a fan of the show, and see its enormous potential, as well.  That's when we said a tearful goodbye, and I got to writing this letter.  So, for Oprah Winfrey's sake, Nielsen households, please watch the 2 hour season finale of Alcatraz (Monday, March 26, 2012 at 8pm ET on FOX), so that it can have a realistic chance of at least coming back on Fridays next season.  Do it for Oprah, but more importantly, do it for me.  Thanks for reading.

Sincerely,
Chris Colley and Oprah Winfrey*




*No, Oprah didn't contact me.  I just thought it would be fun to write this, based on her public plea for ratings for one of her OWN programs awhile back.  She's not allowed to do that, but no one can stop me.  Muwahahahaha!  Plus, it might get some Nielsen household page clicks, right?  In all seriousness, if you want Alcatraz to have any chance at returning, it needs to kill it in the 18-49 demo on Monday.  Please watch it live if you are a Nielsen household, and want the show to come back.

Friday, March 23, 2012

TV Ratings Notes For Thursday, March 22, 2012 (Awake, Missing, Touch, Community, 30 Rock, Up All Night)

Awake (NBC, 10pm ET)

4.65 million Overall Viewers
1.2/3 in the 18-49 Demo

I've been waiting for this show to move from the bubble to renew it/cancel it for two weeks, now.  Last week, I put it in the cancel it pile, because I couldn't see it holding its ratings for future episodes.  Well, the crash happened a little earlier than expected.  Maybe the NCAA basketball game was interesting last night, and it lost some viewers, or maybe it was due to the rather lackluster third episode, from the week before.  At any rate, there's no hemming and hawing from me, anymore, Awake is going to get canceled.  Sorry fans.

Missing (ABC, 8pm ET)

8.70 million Overall Viewers
1.6/5 in the 18-49 Demo

There was a pretty big drop in numbers for Missing, this week.  These numbers are going to get it canceled, especially once a full lineup returns against it.
  
Touch (FOX, 9pm ET)

11.69 million Overall Viewers
3.2/9 in the 18-49 Demo

I know these numbers look great, and they are, but be careful.  Be very careful.  This show is not even remotely up against its true competition.  For a second week in a row, it was given a freebie.  When I watched the Pilot, I thought this show was going to be a kind of lame version of Person of Interest (CBS, Thursdays, 9pm ET).  So, in a great counterprogramming strategy (not), FOX has decided to have it face off in the same time slot as a show many people probably think is much better than this one.  I'll reserve judgment for the quality of the show until I see the second episode, but I think it's a very bad strategy for FOX to put this show against Person of Interest.  We'll know in a few weeks how well that will work out.  Don't forget, neither Person of Interest, nor The Office aired this week, and Touch still didn't hit numbers similar to Person of Interest.

Community (NBC, 8pm ET)

3.89 million Overall Viewers
1.7/6 in the 18-49 Demo

Yes, those radically inflated numbers, from last week, came back down to earth.  They should still come down even further to earth when The Big Bang Theory (CBS) comes back.  Should you be concerned?  No, no, you should not be concerned.  Community will be renewed!

30 Rock (NBC, 8:30pm ET)

8:30pm ET Episode Ratings:

3.27 million Overall Viewers
1.5/4 in the 18-49 Demo

9pm ET Episode Ratings:

3.42 million Overall Viewers
1.5/4 in the 18-49 Demo

I really want NBC to cancel this show, just to prove that my against the grain thinking was right.  Will they have the balls to do it?  All they're going to do next season, if it comes back for a last one, is wrap it up in 8 episodes, or so.  Why not just wrap it up now?  Wrap, wrap, wrap it up.

Up All Night (NBC, 9:30pm ET)

3.18 million Overall Viewers
1.4/4 in the 18-49 Demo

Without equivocation, I'm telling you this show should be canceled.  These aren't even its real numbers, and these numbers are bad.  If NBC renews this, it's solely for political reasons.  If they can renew this show, you might as well chalk up renewals for Whitney and Are You There, Chelsea? (I kid, I kid, settle down).  Thanks for reading.

Thursday, March 22, 2012

NBC Announces Another Renewal

Smash (Mondays at 10pm ET) has been renewed.  Fans may now get up and sing a number.  Thanks for reading.

TV Ratings Note For Wednesday, March 21, 2012 (Bent)

Bent (NBC, 9pm ET)

2.82 million Overall Viewers (Premiere)
1.0/3 in the 18-49 Demo

2.42 million Overall Viewers (2nd Episode)
0.9/2 in the 18-49 Demo

More like broken is what it is.  You'll see me use the term DOA, when describing the premiere of a TV show, whenever it debuts lower than expected.  I'm inventing a new term (won't put it in my coined terms, since they're so rare) to describe shows that premiere with ratings like these.  This show is cremated.  This show shouldn't realistically get to air any other episodes, because it has nowhere to go but down, and down below a 1.0 on network TV just isn't usually allowed to happen for more than a week (The Firm is an obvious exception, due to the contractual obligation to air all 22).  However, it is only 6 episodes, which means there's at least some possibility it won't get summarily yanked from the schedule early.  I still think it could get yanked, but it might not.  I'm going to go ahead and place this in the canceled pile, even though there has obviously not been an official announcement.

As for the show, I gave it the old college try, watching both episodes before writing this.  To me, it was truly painful to watch most of it, and I just couldn't get into it, at all.  When you're trying to "force" awkwardness, it just makes it, well, awkward.  I will say it was a well cast show, and every character in the show is pretty self assured, almost annoyingly so (even though they almost all have very obvious issues).  However, once you get everyone together, it turns into a big pile of awkwardness, that just doesn't work, at all, to me.  I can't see any potential with the show.  It looks like they have it fully fleshed out, and, to me, it's just not good enough to watch.  I almost turned it off toward the beginning of the second episode, but I did my due diligence and followed through to the end.  That's as much as I am willing to give to the show.  I'm sure this is just another, in what will probably be a long line of New Girl type shows, that are trying to capture the feel of that show, just with different character subsets.  Maybe it's for you, but it's just not for me.  Thanks for reading.

Monday, March 19, 2012

TV Ratings Note For Sunday, March 18, 2012 (GCB)

GCB (ABC, 10pm ET)

6.28 million Overall Viewers
2.0/5 in the 18-49 Demo

I don't know why, but I'm getting the feeling that the fate of this show may be hard to predict, similar to Awake (NBC, Thursdays, 10pm ET).  As of this particular writing, these are the absolute lowest numbers this show can get, to get renewed.  I thought, last week, that the show would potentially lose some of its hangover viewers from the people who only became interested after the encore presentations of the Pilot had aired.  It turns out that it lost quite a few viewers from week 2 to week 3 (.3 in the 18-49 demo, and a little less than 1 million overall viewers).  Knowing how things like this go, the 2.0 you see, right here, is the absolute bubble for this show.  If it drops below a 2.0, it's see you later.  Next week, I will 100 percent decide its fate, rightly or wrongly.  Just like Awake is exactly on the bubble at a 1.6, 2.0 has to be the absolute bubble for an ABC drama (comedy, whatevs), all in my opinion, of course.  It should be a fascinating story to see if the show can stabilize exactly at the numbers it received last night.  If it does that, its fate may be close to impossible to accurately predict, outside of coin flip guessing.  Stay tuned, and thanks for reading.

Friday, March 16, 2012

Fall 2011-2012 Renewed Scripted TV Shows List (Big 4 Networks Only)

CBS:

How I Met Your Mother 
The Big Bang Theory
2 Broke Girls
Mike & Molly
NCIS
NCIS: Los Angeles
Criminal Minds
CSI: Crime Scene Investigation
Hawaii Five-O
Person of Interest 
The Mentalist
Blue Bloods
The Good Wife
Two and a Half Men
CSI: NY

NBC:

Grimm 
Smash
Law & Order: Special Victims Unit 
Parenthood
30 Rock (13 episode final season) 
Community 
The Office
Parks and Recreation 
Up All Night 
Whitney 

ABC:

Once Upon a Time
Castle
Revenge
Grey's Anatomy
Modern Family
The Middle
Suburgatory
Happy Endings 
Scandal
Don't Trust the B---- in Apt. 23
Private Practice
Body of Proof 
Last Man Standing

FOX:

The Simpsons
Family Guy
The Cleveland Show
American Dad 
Bones 
Glee
New Girl
Raising Hope
Fringe (13 episode final season) 
Touch 

Another Renewal Is Announced (NBC)

Grimm (Fridays at 9pm ET) has been renewed.  Anyone who follows this blog knows that I really enjoy this show.  While it has been very obvious, since the beginning, that this show would be renewed, it doesn't temper my excitement for the official news.  It is the anti-Once Upon A Time (ABC), and I enjoy it much better than that show.  I hope this will give you the confidence to start watching the show.  Thanks for reading.

TV Ratings Notes For Thursday, March 15, 2012 (Touch, Missing, Community, 30 Rock, Awake)

It's rare that you get to make almost a full sentence from TV show titles that applies to what actually happened, but if you read the order of the titles listed in my headline, you will get kind of an idea of how things went last night.  You're welcome.  Before reading this, I want to temper what I'm about to write.  You need to be careful not to read too much into these ratings, because they are likely inflated, across the board.  The NCAA Basketball Tournament started yesterday, and it was CBS's primetime programming.  From a ratings standpoint, it was a disaster for them (1.7 in the 18-49 demo), especially since Thursday night is one of their best nights of television, ratings wise, every week.  So, we'll have a better idea of what's going on, once the regular programming comes back.  I don't know when that will be, so it might be very very good news for some of these shows.

Touch (FOX, 9pm ET)

8.667 million Overall Viewers
2.2/6 in the 18-49 Demo

Yes, I know it was a repeat of something they showed a little over a month ago, but it should be a pretty big cause for concern, leading into episode 2.  Maybe it will do much better, in week two, but these numbers are extremely close to the typical The Finder numbers.  Check in, next week, to see if everyone just tuned out for the repeat of the Pilot.  If not, this show is going to get killed when Person of Interest comes back.  These numbers were a FAR cry from its initial premiere ratings of a 3.9 in the 18-49 demo, and 12.01 million overall viewers.  As I said, we'll find out next week if this show is for real.

Missing (ABC, 8pm ET)

10.560 million Overall Viewers
2.0/6 in the 18-49 Demo

As I thought, Ashley Judd pulled in an audience for this series.  Unfortunately, for the series, most of that audience is outside of the 18-49 demo.  The show's skewing really old, and it's not up against its real competition.  You're likely looking at a one and done, here, unless the show is just the most amazing thing, ever.  10 episodes have been ordered, as of this writing.  At least they'll probably all air without any hiatuses.  Expect somewhat of a ratings crash next week.

Community (NBC, 8pm ET)

4.894 million Overall Viewers
2.2/7 in the 18-49 Demo

Community fans rejoice!  If it stays anywhere near these numbers (it won't when The Big Bang Theory comes back), this is an obvious renewal.  There will be no weeping and gnashing of teeth about this show getting canceled.  There's no way it will get canceled, unless it has one of the most enormous ratings crashes in the history of television.  I know the fans of the show won't let that happen.  Plus, they signed a syndication deal, this week, and they don't have enough episodes for syndication.  You know what that means, right?  That's right, more episodes coming!

30 Rock (NBC, 8:30pm ET)

4.045 million Overall Viewers
2.0/6 in the 18-49 Demo

If I told you that Community could save 30 Rock, would you believe me?

Awake (NBC, 10pm ET)

5.052 million Overall Viewers
1.6/4 in the 18-49 Demo

We still haven't seen Awake against its full slate of competition, but its ratings appear to have stabilized.  As long as there is no adjustment down, this is pretty good news for the show (sort of).  As of right now, I think this show is exactly on the bubble.  If it goes ANY lower, it's done.  If it goes ANY higher, it might get renewed.  If it stays the same, it probably gets canceled.  I still think the numbers are inflated, and really want to see it against full competition.  I'm still leaning toward it being canceled, but this show is probably going to be the hardest show on TV to predict the fate of, unless the numbers become far more obvious over the next couple of weeks.  Thanks for reading.

Thursday, March 15, 2012

TV Ratings Notes For Wednesday, March 14, 2012 (Whitney, Are You There, Chelsea?)

Whitney (NBC, 8pm ET)

4.013 million Overall Viewers
1.4/5 in the 18-49 Demo

Well, kids, that's about it for this show, in more ways than one.  There are three episodes left, and these ratings are anemic, now that it is having to face a full slate of original programming.  It would be catastrophic for NBC to renew this show.  It's time to find a different "brand" of sitcom.  This style of sitcom does not work on network TV, unless it has significantly more charm than this show exhibited in the parts I have seen.

Are You There, Chelsea? (NBC, 8:30pm ET)

2.903 million Overall Viewers
1.0/3 in the 18-49 Demo

If it weren't for the fact that there are only 3 episodes left, this show would have been yanked before it finished.  It hit the dreaded 1.0, which is the guillotine for network scripted TV.  It will run out to the end, but this show is so ridiculously canceled, it's not even funny (and...it's not even funny, even though I will have watched every episode by the end).  Thanks for reading.

Wednesday, March 14, 2012

LUCK (HBO) Halts Production Due To Horse Deaths

As told to me by my friend AnnMarie C. (aka Stan), and reported by TV by the Numbers here, HBO and Mann/Milch have ceased all future production on the low rated Luck, due to horse deaths that occurred during the shooting of the show.  I am enormously sad that this could even happen on the set of a TV show, and it appears that ending this show is the best possible course of action, especially considering how dangerous it appears the show was to make.  Thanks for reading.

You Have Been Renewed! (CBS Renews 11 Scripted TV Shows, In Addition To 2 Previous Renewals)

You can read the press release via TV by the Numbers, here.

CBS scripted TV shows that got renewed today:

How I Met Your Mother (previously renewed)
The Big Bang Theory (previously renewed)
2 Broke Girls
Mike & Molly
NCIS
NCIS: Los Angeles
Criminal Minds
CSI: Crime Scene Investigation
Hawaii Five-O
Person of Interest (YAY, it's official!)
The Mentalist
Blue Bloods
The Good Wife

Did your favorite shows make the first cut?  Thanks for reading.

Tuesday, March 13, 2012

TV Ratings Note For Monday March 12, 2012 (Alcatraz)

Alcatraz (FOX, 9pm ET)

4.991 million Overall Viewers
1.6/4 in the 18-49 Demo

I held out hope, after last weeks 1.9/1.8 two hour block of episodes, that Alcatraz could pick up enough live viewers (it does well on DVR) to potentially come back on Fridays, next season.  Well, this week's episode had terribly low ratings, and I no longer have any hope for Alcatraz coming back...period.  It's too bad, because it might have become a good show, but now we will never get the opportunity to know how good, as it's almost done with its short season (series).  Thanks for reading.

Monday, March 12, 2012

TV Ratings Notes For Sunday, March 11, 2012 (Harry's Law, GCB)

Harry's Law (NBC, 8pm ET)

8.872 million Overall Viewers
1.1/3 in the 18-49 Demo

Last night, I read an article where Kathy Bates was basically saying that it would be insane for NBC to cancel Harry's Law, because it is the highest rated scripted TV show on NBC.  That, coupled with the statement whining about the cancellation of Terra Nova, by one of its stars, shows that the people on these shows live in just about as much of a reality as the characters they play on TV.  If I were an actor or a maker of a show, I would make it my duty to understand what the ratings for my show mean.  It's not that hard, and you don't work any less hard to make your show a success, if you think it's going to fail.  I would think ratings knowledge would make the people involved try harder.

At any rate, with last night's Harry's Law ratings, Bates was only half wrong.  These days, Harry's Law does have the most VIEWERS of any NBC scripted TV show, and by a pretty wide margin (Smash is second).  The problem is that it is also the lowest rated NBC scripted TV show in the area that counts, the 18-49 demo (not counting the canceled The Firm, which is in burn off).  Last season, the wide disparity in overall viewers vs. the 18-49 demo was enough to get Harry's Law renewed.  I don't, at all, think that will happen this year.  However, if those numbers get above 10 million overall viewers, it will certainly put NBC in between a rock and a hard place.  If, by some MIRACLE, Harry's Law gets renewed, I will coin a new TV term, which, uh, will be called Harry's Law.  You'll only get the reveal of what it means if the show gets renewed for a third season.

GCB (ABC, 10pm ET)

7.251 million Overall Viewers
2.3/6 in the 18-49 Demo

I haven't seen the show, but, Desperate Housewives fans, you might want to check GCB out, as it is now becoming likely to be the replacement for that departing series.  Part of it was probably due to the episode getting an encore chance during the week, but the ratings went UP for GCB, this week.  Due to that rare phenomenon from episode 1 to episode 2, barring a ratings crash next week, I think this show is going to be renewed.  How do all y'all GCBs feel about that?  Thanks for reading.

Friday, March 9, 2012

PERSON OF INTEREST Thanks For The Shout Out ;)

Hey, makers of Person of Interest (CBS, Thursdays, 9pm ET), thanks for the shout out in this week's episode (bracelet with the initials CC).  Even if it's not, I'll still act like it is, as you knowww this is my favorite show.  Thanks for reading.

Do you know this man?

Thursday, March 8, 2012 TV Ratings Follow Up (Awake)

Awake (NBC, 10pm ET)

4.25 million Overall Viewers
1.6/4 in the 18-49 Demo

The second episode of Awake aired last night, and it was down significantly in the ratings.  The ending of the episode was very polarizing, and will likely result in even more viewers being lost next week.  Unfortunately, for the show, it can't afford to lose any other viewers.  Maybe I'll have another happy update, like last week's upward adjustment, but I have a relatively strong feeling that an adjustment down is more likely.  This is literally right on the line of the show being canceled (the point of no return).  An adjustment up would give me more hope.  An adjustment down, and it's hopeless.  If the show ends up failing, I'm probably going to do a write up about what I think were some of the causes, outside of the potential for this just being some dumb giant conspiracy story regarding some random cop.  If you're a fan of the show, and want it to stick around, you should tell all your friends about it (as long as you're between the ages of 18-49).  As it stands, this show would be better placed on pay cable (HBO, Showtime, etc.) where people don't need to watch it for it to be successful.  Thanks for reading.

Wednesday, March 7, 2012

Chris Colley's Pointless Predictions Of What's Going To Get Renewed And Canceled For The 2011-12 TV Season

Correct predictions will be highlighted in Blue
Incorrect predictions will be highlight in Red.

Lots of people like to speculate about what will happen with TV shows.  I'm one of those people.  I thought all of the normal predictors were out of their minds placing Person of Interest (CBS) on the bubble, and Unforgettable (CBS) as likely to be renewed.  I knew that Person of Interest would be back, long before anyone else was willing to say it, but I'm really doing nothing more than educated guessing based on my own ideas of what makes a show get renewed or canceled.  We're now just about far enough into the TV season that I think I can really start shoring up my predictions.  In the case of this post, I'm going to use the words "Renew It" or "Cancel It", and I might put parentheses for shows that I think will be renewed or canceled, despite what I *think* should happen.

I'll list my categories for what I think plays into a renewal of a show, even if they are woefully wrong.  We'll see if I'm right by the end of the season.  If there's something I'm not willing to predict, yet, I'll give a rough date for when I'm going to be ready to predict the show's fate.  This will only be for scripted TV, and will only count the four big networks (CBS, NBC, ABC, FOX).  I will continuously update this, as the season goes on, if we get other news.  Keep in mind that I have literally nailed every show that has already been canceled (outside of animation, which I don't care about).  I will still place those in, and mark them in blue, for being correct, and red for being wrong.  There's a lot of information out there that makes this kind of stuff easier to predict, but there are a few places where I may differ from what other people say.

Chris Colley's Criteria That Play Into Whether Shows Should Get Renewed Or Canceled:

1.  Ratings
2.  Quality
3.  Cost
4.  How close it is to syndication

Two of the three main (syndication will not come into play very often) categories have to be good for a show to get renewed, except in very rare instances.  Syndication can come into play for shows that are close to being canceled, but are also close to having enough episodes for syndication.  The shows that are nearest to syndication are the shows I would be most prone to making mistakes.  I don't like to deal in maybes, so I'm just going to come right out and say what I think each show's fate SHOULD be, not necessarily what it will be.  If I don't think it's wise to give an answer yet, I'll tell you when to expect one.

CBS:

Already Renewed:

How I Met Your Mother
The Big Bang Theory

Already Canceled:

How To Be A Gentleman

Renew It (Fates decided March 7, 2012):

Blue Bloods
The Good Wife
Hawaii Five-O
The Mentalist
CSI
NCIS
NCIS: Los Angeles
Criminal Minds
Person of Interest
Rob
Mike & Molly
2 Broke Girls
Two and a Half Men
Rules of Engagement (fate re-decided April 16, 2012, as I think it will come back, due to the likely expansion of the Thursday night comedy block, in a timeshare with Rob, to get it enough episodes for syndication)

Cancel It (Fates decided March 7, 2012):

A Gifted Man
Unforgettable
CSI: NY
CSI: Miami
NYC 22 (fate decided April 16, 2012)

NBC:

Already Canceled:

The Playboy Club
Free Agents
Prime Suspect
The Firm
Chuck (Final Season)

Renew It (Fates decided March 7, 2012, except where noted): 

Grimm
Community
The Office
Parks and Recreation
Parenthood
Smash
30 Rock (fate adjusted May 7, 2012.  After seeing some of the NBC sitcom pickups, I'm pretty sure this is going to get another short season, much to my chagrin, as I really feel it should be canceled.  Deadline.com reported that it was nearing a renewal for a 13-14 episode season, but I actually think it's going to be held in second position to one of these picked up sitcoms that will likely fail.  You'll know which one, once we see the set schedule.  If it's second position to Save Me, I think there's a very good chance it will get the 13-14, as I can't see that show making it past 8 episodes, based on the summary.  Its worst case scenario is that it will end up on one of these show's back nine that doesn't get picked up.  I can't buck the trend, like I did with Fringe, I have to at least acknowledge that this will happen, even if I think it's a mistake.  Since I can't take credit for this choice of renewal, it's more interesting to me to see how close this paragraph of explanation ends up being to reality.  Stay tuned.)

Cancel It (Fates decided March 7, 2012 except where noted):

Harry's Law
Are You There, Chelsea?
Whitney
Up All Night (Update, May 7, 2012 is that the prospects look much worse for this show based on what sitcoms NBC is picking up, even though they still might do it, but shouldn't...shooooouldnnnnnnnn't.)
Law & Order: SVU (NBC will probably renew this, but shouldn't)
Awake (fate decided March 9, 2012)
Bent (fate decided March 22, 2012)
Best Friends Forever (fate decided April 12, 2012)

ABC:

Already Canceled:

Charlie's Angels
Pan Am
Man Up
Work It!
Desperate Housewives (Final Season)

Renew It (Fates decided March 7, 2012, except where noted):

Modern Family
Once Upon a Time
Grey's Anatomy
Happy Endings
Surburgatory
The Middle
Castle
Private Practice
Don't Trust the B---- in Apt. 23 (fate decided April 19, 2012)
Scandal (fate decided April 27, 2012)
Revenge (fate decided May 3, 2012)

Cancel It (Fates decided March 7, 2012 except where noted):

Body of Proof 
The River
Cougar Town (picked up by TBS for a fourth season)
Missing (fate decided March 23, 2012)
GCB (fate decided April 16, 2012)
Last Man Standing (fate changed May 2, 2012)


FOX:

Already Renewed: 

The Simpsons
Family Guy
The Cleveland Show
American Dad

Already Canceled:

Terra Nova
House (Final Season)
Allen Gregory

Renew It (Fates decided March 7, 2012, except where noted):

Raising Hope
New Girl
Glee
Bones (renewed before it came back)
Touch (fate decided March 30, 2012)

Cancel It (Fates decided March 7, 2012, except where noted):

I Hate My Teenage Daughter
Breaking In 
Alcatraz (fate decided March 13, 2012, I actually think Fringe's 13 episode renewal boosts the slim chances for Alcatraz to also get a 13 episode renewal, that I'm assuming would be in a timeshare with Fringe on Friday nights)
The Finder (fate decided April 14, 2012)
Fringe (fate decided April 14, 2012, going against the grain of many people involved with the show, and multiple websites, predicting it will come back for a 13 episode 5th and final season)
Napoleon Dynamite (fate changed May 10, 2012, as I said before, I have no clue about animation, and I don't track it.  I have heard the ratings are not good, so let's put it here.  I won't be counting this against myself, regardless of whether I'm wrong.)

These are just one person's opinion, and that person's opinion means practically nothing.  There will be places I'm right, and places where I'm wrong.  If I were in charge somewhere, this is what I would do, but I'm not, so some of these shows can breathe easy.  Commence weeping and gnashing of teeth now.  Thanks for reading.

Monday, March 5, 2012

TV Show Extinction Event (Cancellation)

As reported by TV by the Numbers, Terra Nova (FOX) has been canceled.  The studio is supposedly trying to shop it to other outlets, so there's at least a tiny glimmer of hope for it showing up somewhere else.  I remember when another studio tried to shop The Event after its cancellation from NBC.  We all see how well that worked out.  I am very happy that this show is gone, now all the Alcatraz fans need to start watching the show live for that to stick around.  Thanks for reading.

Sunday, March 4, 2012 TV Ratings Premiere Note (GCB)

GCB (ABC, 10pm ET)

7.60 million Overall Viewers
2.2/6 in the 18-49 Demo

GCB is not DOA, but I heard it's being rushed to the ER, for an EKG.  From my POV, these numbers are a rough start for ABC, but if it were NBC, it would have been A-OK.  Check back next week to see if the ratings become more LOL.  Thanks for reading.

Friday, March 2, 2012

Thursday, March 1, 2012 TV Ratings Premiere Note (Awake)

UPDATE:

The final adjustment came in, and Awake was adjusted up to a 2.0 in the 18-49 demo.  This means that you can give less regard to the words I wrote below about it being DOA, but still keep in mind that it was against reruns.  It actually now has a better shot at success, based on this ratings update.  Stay tuned, literally, or it will go away. 

Awake (NBC, 10pm ET)

6.247 million Overall Viewers
1.9/5 in the 18-49 Demo (Preliminary)

Last night, Awake premiered on NBC.  I have been highly anticipating the ratings for the premiere (and especially next week's episode) for a couple of weeks now.  I think Awake is a huge challenge to sell to an audience, and that NBC was probably wearing Depends in anticipation of its opening numbers.  I'm pretty sure, if they felt differently, they wouldn't have held it so long.  My initial prediction was that it would premiere somewhere between a 1.8 and a 2.2 in the 18-49 demo, and that it would likely be closer to the lower side of that number.  I think, in a vacuum, this show ended up premiering .1, in the 18-49 demo, above what I would traditionally call DOA for a police procedural (the final adjustment in the ratings will be pretty crucial for the show).  Unfortunately, for this show, it was not in a vacuum, even though NBC does a pretty good job of impersonating one.  The show premiered against reruns, last night, and, because of that, it is my duty to say this show has premiered DOA.

As a qualifier, the Pilot was available before the premiere for several weeks.  There's a chance that many many people saw it before it aired, and decided not to tune in for the TV version.  Those viewers may come back for next week's episode, and the ratings might not lose much.  The best the fans of this show can hope for, right now, is a Revenge like grip on the audience.  Shows tend to lose a pretty significant amount of viewers from the premiere to the second episode, and Awake is far more challenging to the viewer than most of those.  It's also going up against two very popular shows, once they come back from reruns.  That's why I have to predict it is DOA.  I hope I'm wrong, because it is a very interesting police procedural, and could have set the tone for what people try in the future, if it were successful.  Alas, it does not appear that will be the case, even though it had one very decent night on NBC.  Thanks for reading.

Thursday, March 1, 2012

REVENGE (ABC): Who Knew The Hamptons Was Such A Criminal Breeding Ground?

In honor of all of the page clicks I have gotten from the message board for Revenge (ABC, Wednesdays, 10pm ET), on imdb.com, I have decided to make a post that I hope will appeal to them, and anyone else who enjoys the show.  In this post, I will break down each important character by the crimes I think they have committed.  Good or bad, these characters all prove one thing...there is a major crime wave in The Hamptons.  I hope you enjoy it.  Just as a warning, some spoilers from last night's episode will be in here.  It would be best to watch the episode before reading this.

Is this the face of an angel or a devil?
The picture above is our star, Emily Thorne (she has switched identities with someone), who is really Amanda Clarke, the daughter of a convicted terrorist (who didn't really do it).  This whole series is evidently about her quest for revenge, in hopes of avenging the wrongs that were done to her father.  There's probably more to it than that, but that's all the writers are willing to tell us, at this time.  Now that the laypeople have had her bio, let's talk about Emily's criminal history.  She grew up in Juvenile Detention, and she is bitter.  I can't really list all of the crimes she has committed during the course of the first season, as most are pretty ambiguous, but she is definitely public enemy number one.  It's just that not many people know this is the case, due to the subtle nature of her screwjobs.

Is she a criminal?
Yes, no doubt about it.

The devil, the target, the mark, the evil one
That, right there, is Victoria Grayson, and based on what we've seen so far, she is Emily's (Amanda) public enemy number one.  Victoria has been wronged in her life, but she has done more wrong than has been done to her.  She has committed a lot of crimes, again, they are too numerous, and hideous to list.  Emily has been muscling in on her criminal enterprise, and she is not happy about it. 

Is she a criminal? 
Yes, no doubt about it.

Evil sumbitch
That is Conrad Grayson.  He is the patriarch of the most evil family in The Hamptons.  He has no soul, and his list of criminal accomplishments is probably longer than many of the studio moguls of Old Hollywood.  The chickens are coming home to roost for this man, and he will surely be left broke, penniless, and dead by the end of this series.

Is he a criminal?
Yes, no doubt about it.

My crimes are not only against fashion
That not as young as they act like he is guy there is Nolan Ross, the richest man in our crime enclave.  Emily's (Amanda's dad, David Clarke) father gave him money to start a technology company, and he is now one of the richest men in the world.  Although Emily did not plan for Nolan to be involved in her web of revenge, he is knee deep in it, now.  He is her right hand man, and is likely very complicit in a number of crimes, not the least of which are breaking and entering, covering up a murder, covering up an attempted murder, evidence tampering, and possibly is complicit in murder.  He's just about every normal person's favorite character on the show, and how can you not like someone who has already gotten away with so much?

Is he a criminal?
Yes indeedy sweetie

Is that...the Fonz?
That's Daniel Grayson, one of the most gullible, trusting, and stupid people in the Grayson clan.  Emily's revenge intentions clearly included ruining this guy.  She has done several incredibly suspicious things around him, and yet he believes anything and everything she tells him.  They are currently engaged.  If stupidity and gullibility were crimes, Daniel would be on death row.  As it stands, his parents covered up a horrific DUI accident he had that left someone paralyzed.  Nothing bad came out of it for him....until now.  He's serving some jail time now, because the cops, and a very dumb Judge seem to think that he killed a guy named Tyler Barrol, while he was knocked out (they refused him bail).  It turns out Daniel fired the first shot, not really in self defense, but, just to make sure this Tyler guy wouldn't ever be a problem again, another helpful person turned it into First Degree Murder, after knocking Daniel out on the beach.  He's getting railroaded for a crime he at least has some possibility of having an acquittal due to self defense.  All of this has been done to create mo drama.

Is he a criminal?
You betcha

Crazy, obsessive, bitter, dead
I have to follow up our dumb character Daniel with his supposed victim, Tyler Barrol.  Tyler was a friend of Daniel's from Harvard.  Tyler was not okay.  He appeared to have some kind of obsession with Daniel, and later turned that obsession toward the Graysons.  His family (or he) was wronged by the Graysons in some way that hasn't completely been revealed.  At any rate, he is a fraud, and he needs heavy medication to only seem bat sh** crazy.  At one point, he came to a party at the Graysons, and threatened to kill everyone there.  He was taken off to a mental institution, and that was that.  Except, it wasn't.  The big reveal of this season was theoretically about who killed Daniel.  It turns out Daniel wasn't killed, Tyler was.  He had somehow broken out of the mental institution, was on the run for at least a few days, and no one noticed, or notified his intended victims.  He kidnapped Fauxmanda (getting to her next), and was going to shout from the mountaintops about who Emily Thorne really is (I guess).  He ended up being no more than a pitiful James Bond-esque villain, who was almost more of a MacGuffin than he was a villain.  He committed a whole lot of crimes in his short number of episodes on the show.  In a lot of ways, it's a good thing he's dead.

Is he a criminal?
Lock him up, and throw away the key...oh wait...death penalty

Gratuitous bikini shot to increase page clicks
If Tyler Barrol was wild card number one, that woman in the bikini is wild card number two.  Her real name is Emily Thorne (whaaaaa?).  However, these days she goes by the name Amanda Clarke.  We'll just call her Fauxmanda.  She evidently had some kind of caged heat with Emily Thorne (real Amanda), while they were in Juvenile Hall, and she loves her some Emily.  She is very crazy, as well, and would easily be defined as a loose cannon.  Her jealousy toward Emily's rejection of her caused her to pursue the guy that Emily really liked (though she couldn't really have a relationship with him).  Fauxmanda is a major Thorne (get it, ha ha) in her side, and Emily does many things to try to get rid of her, including framing her for arson.  Just so you don't feel too bad about Fauxmanda, she was introduced to us as a stripper with a heart of (tire) iron.  When someone got too close to finding out about the Emily/Amanda ID switch, that's right, Fauxmanda hit him over the head with tire iron, and killed him.  She's a murderer, but this is TV, so she'll never have to pay for it.

Is she a criminal?
Does TV murder count?

"Emily, WTF ARE YOU DOING?"
That man is Satoshi Takeda, and he is Emily's (Amanda) Sensei.  He has been carefully guiding Emily down a path that will cause the most destruction, while leaving the least collateral damage (I hope).  He thinks Emily has become distracted from her goals, and became so angry that he told her he would no longer help her.  Good thing for Emily there were a lot of hiatuses, because those hiatuses allowed Takeda to come back without us remembering that he told her to F off.  Takeda is a helpful guy, and wants Emily back on the proper path.  So, he shoots Tyler, frames Daniel, implicates Jack, and gets rid of Fauxmanda, all in one fell swoop.  Of course, Fauxmanda could clear Jack, and probably could clear Daniel, as well.  But, that's not what Takeda wants.  He wants...uh, I don't know what he wants. 

Is he a criminal?
First Degree Murdaaaa

"I'm such an idiot, I sometimes wonder if Daniel is my brother."
Jack Porter, you are a fool.  It's not that you haven't been set up to be that, but you are a fool.  Your instincts told you that Emily was the little girl you fell in love with oh so many years ago.  Your dog even knew it.  You said, "But nah."  You tried to steal her heart, but were spurned.  Then, Fauxmanda came into your life, and you immediately accepted that she was the real Amanda, even though all of your instincts told you otherwise.  Even your dog didn't like her.  I guess you were blinded by how she looked in a bikini and short shorts.  Fauxmanda was nothing but barney...rubble...trouble.  You had enough of being jerked around, and finally decided to shove off for Haiti, to do some good, because you are a do-gooder.  Right as you're pulling out of the dock, Fauxmanda shows up, after she had summarily dumped you.  She agrees to go to Haiti with you.  You then decide to say some nice things about how Emily feels about her (that are all untrue), and Fauxmanda leaves again.  That was when all hell broke loose.  The murder of Tyler happens, and Jack finds Fauxmanda standing over the body.  As any helpful moron will do, he proceeds to attempt to hide the body, or something.  He's discovered (though not recognized), and the family comes out screaming about the dead Daniel on the beach...who turned out to be Tyler.  He disturbed a crime scene, and his woman didn't even do it.  Then, he proceeds to obstruct justice by not telling anyone what happened, or what he thought might have happened.  Jack, you are a fool, and...a criminal.

Is he a criminal?
Disturbing a crime scene and Obstruction of Justice

Why couldn't a through and through gunshot have hit him, too?
That's Declan Porter, or if you want to be nostalgic, he's kind of like Molly Ringwald in Pretty in Pink.  He so desperately wants to fit in to the high society, but he's too stupid to realize that he never will.  Good thing his girlfriend, Charlotte Grayson, is such a rebel, or he would still be tending bar for all the rich a-holes in The Hamptons, but without any chance of being rich.  If you're wondering what he did, well, he has decided to protect Jack's role in the murder of Tyler.  He found Jack's bloody hoodie, and has evidently decided that the pro move is to obstruct justice.  No wonder he couldn't get into that prep school at the age of 21.

Is he a criminal?
Obstruction of Justice and possibly Aiding and Abetting

"I HATE YOU!  I HATE YOU ALL!"
That's Charlotte Grayson.  She's had a rough summer.  She just found out that her father is David Clarke, the convicted terrorist.  This means that Emily is her half sister (not that Emily will tell her this).  Her family treats her like crap, her mother can barely look at her (due to it reminding her of her framed "love" David Clarke), and...she has to be with Declan.  Things got so bad that she stole someone's Oxycodone to forget.  She was evidently high, when Tyler was killed, because she thought a guy that looked nothing like her brother, Daniel, was the person who was killed on the beach.

Is she a criminal?
You're not supposed to steal or take other people's pills

"The only crimes of mine you know about right now are fashion related."

That's Ashley Davenport.  She's upwardly mobile, but surprisingly useless as a character.  She's just everyone's assistant, but hasn't seemed to have much of a purpose through the first 15 episodes.  That all changed with Daniel's arrest for murder.  She's now the Grayson family spokesperson, a job that is sure to be worth about a buck, a buck 2.98.  She hasn't figured out who to be loyal to, yet, and that's a problem.  Good thing she's such a nothing character, so far.

Is she a criminal?
Not that we know of, yet, but this is The Hamptons, and everyone is a criminal.

"How the f*** did I not die from that fall?"
That's Lydia Davis, who was once the owner of Emily's house, and who had an affair with Conrad Grayson.  The Graysons decided to do something about this potentially recurring problem via their security guy, Frank.  She was thrown out of her window, and landed very gruesomely on top of a car.  Somehow, she managed to live from this fall that has killed many characters in other movies and TV shows.  Before she was killed, oops, I mean before she was injured, she was essentially blackmailing Conrad.  That's a crime.

Is she a criminal?
Blackmail

His fate is why you should avoid strip clubs
Frank Stevens is that man, and I think he was considered the Graysons security guy.  He made the fatal (ha ha) error of falling in love with Victoria.  He got fired after the botched attempted murder of Lydia, and he didn't take it well.  He wanted to prove to Victoria that he was right to have done what he did.  He even uncovered that Emily is not really Emily, that she is the real Amanda Clarke.  Unfortunately for him, he wasn't able to get all that out before being whacked over the head with a tire iron by Fauxmanda.  Then, Victoria forgot about the information he was relaying, which consequently made the audience forget (even though we already knew).

Is he a criminal?
Attempted murder among many other things, and he ended up getting the death penalty

Everyone thinks he's the bad guy
That's the convicted terrorist David Clarke, Emily's (Amanda) father, who supposedly died in prison.  He probably did some pretty bad stuff, like doing some dirty stuff with money, but he evidently didn't do what everyone thinks he did.  He's what we'll call a developing story.

Is he a criminal?
Probably, but is not nearly as bad as everyone thinks he is

Evil sumbitch, who worked hard to get where he is
That's Edward Grayson, Conrad's father, and the guy who founded Grayson Global.  He's a subtle a-hole, but he's an a-hole nonetheless.  There is no doubt he is aware of the criminal activity that has gone on inside his company.  He just doesn't want the shareholders to really know what was up.

Is he a criminal?
Look at him, and tell me what you think?

I hope this post will make you think twice about wanting to one day move to The Hamptons.  It may very well be the scariest place on earth.  Thanks for reading.
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